Market View: Friday, February 13, 2026 

The US dollar remains firm; gold fell sharply toward $4,900 but rebounded, aiming for $5,000; EURUSD is consolidating after recent USD strength; Bitcoin slightly retreated to the $66,000 level.

• As long as recent labor market data reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, the greenback gained strength. What can surprise today is the CPI release. The higher it will be, the stronger the USD will become. And vice versa.
• Gold faced a technical breakdown, dipping to the $4,900 support line, but partly cut losses ahead of the CPI data.
• Strong US data pressured the euro, and the pair declined 0.17%
• Bitcoin drifted lower toward $65,000, remaining bearish. The recent price action doesn’t anticipate any buying zone around the key levels. That said, the crypto market has transitioned toward a more defensive phase.

Today’s focus:

FX snapshot

XAUUSD

Gold approaches the $5,000 resistance after a strong short downward breakdown last night (-3%). Investors await key US inflation figures to be released later today, for they would pave the way for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. The market has priced in two 25 bps cuts this year, the first one to come in June. 

EURUSD

EURUSD started consolidating after the NFP report. It would likely stay within range trading before CPI numbers. 

BTC

Bitcoin is neutral-to-bearish. Its main catalyst for breaking the recent bearish trend will be the sector’s liquidity, but momentum has softened so far, with risk sentiment staying cautious.

Market sentiment

Today, the US CPI report is released - the key driver. The market forecasts the January (YoY) rate growth by 2.5% vs the previous 2.7%. However, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. If CPI comes out higher than expected, it could delay rate cuts with gold, EURSD, and BTC going down. Traders are definitely waiting for CPI before choosing direction. Moreover, the data will decide it.