Weekly Trading News: February 16–20, 2026
JPY: GDP (YoY) (Q4)
February 16, 01:50 MT time
Japan’s economy is expected to grow in the Q4 2025 report, rebounding to +0.4% from the previous -0.6%. The increase is driven primarily by firm capital investment and domestic demand after weaker earlier data.
The latest governmental elections also increase optimism, with expectations of fiscal support, regulatory clarity, and strategic spending. This has boosted investor confidence ahead of the GDP print.
If the GDP exceeds or just meets expectations, an upside surprise could strengthen the JPY and Nikkei equity index, while a miss might weaken them. Also, a confirmation of private consumption growth would reinforce the shift toward a more stable domestic cycle.
Markets are cautiously optimistic: a growth returning to positive territory would underline resilience in Japan’s economy even amid global headwinds.
Affected instruments: USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY
EUR: German CPI (YoY) (Jan)
February 17, 09:00 MT time
Statistics show that inflation has eased, with the harmonized CPI around ~2.0% year-on-year late in 2025, and core inflation also softening. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is improving modestly, partly due to wage increases and stabilizing prices.
The key expectations ahead of the release include the continued moderate inflation. Markets are looking for signs of further disinflation – weaker price pressures would reinforce the ECB’s further cautious approach.
Moderate CPI readings are likely to strengthen the narrative of inflation easing back into the target range, supporting a stable ECB stance toward a future rate meeting decision.
And any changes from forecasts could influence the euro sentiment and EURUSD trading flows.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs
USD: GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
February 20, 15:30 MT time
Continued growth, with a GDP expansion of around ~4.0–4.4%, is anticipated. Personal and business tax reductions are expected to boost the economy. The primary drivers are consumer spending and a strong service sector.
However, the US exports sector is under pressure while consumer demand supports growth. Although these trends are mixed, the forecast drivers rely on the final positive results in this sphere.
Even with the moderate GDP growth, inflation pressures are expected to continue easing. This, in turn, could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten the policy further.
Most forecasts suggest the Fed could pause the rate cuts throughout 2026, assuming inflation continues to fade.
The market would watch whether the GDP figure beats, meets, or misses estimates – a better-than-expected print would push risk assets and USD higher.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs
