Weekly Trading News: February 23–27, 2026
The week is important as it tests three different pillars of the global macro environment: the US consumer strength, the eurozone inflation trajectory, and the US industrial momentum. Markets currently sit in a “soft-landing” narrative – inflation easing, growth slowing but not collapsing, and the regulators gradually moving toward rate cuts. These reports either reinforce that narrative or shake it.
USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
February 24, 17:00 MT time
The US economy is approximately 70% consumption-driven. If consumers feel secure, spending continues. If confidence drops and spending slows, this will affect corporate earnings, employment, and GDP. This data is an early indicator of demand trends.
Consumers are likely to feel less optimistic than a year ago. People may be cautious about buying big-ticket items, but still confident about day-to-day finances. This means the confidence index might show a slight moderation relative to recent prints, reflecting restraint more than fear.
A softer-than-expected confidence could reinforce a narrative of cooling consumption. In turn, the markets could become slightly dovish as the USD usually weakens after such a release. But XAUUSD might get an upward move for ~$50. And as long as the US Consumer Confidence is due to be released on Tuesday, it sets the tone for the early week trading.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jan)
February 25, 12:00 MT time
The eurozone inflation has been trending lower over recent months as energy costs normalize and core price pressures ease. However, service inflation and wages remain sticky in some countries, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to feed a risk premium.
In this case, lower-than-expected CPI would support easing expectations from the ECB sooner rather than later, reinforcing risk assets. Gold could rally on softer USD, while EURUSD might lose 100-170 pips. By the way, this event is likely to produce the largest Forex volatility of the week. On the other hand, a persistent core inflation would keep the regulator in “data-dependency” mode, leaving gold pressured and EURUSD spiked for 100-160 pips.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.
USD: Chicago PMI (Feb)
February 27, 16:45 MT time
Manufacturing activity in the US has slowed from the post-pandemic boom, but hasn’t collapsed. Supply chains are more stable, but demand is moderating alongside tighter corporate margins. The broader business sentiment index has been oscillating around neutral territory. The Chicago PMI would likely provide a neutral to mildly normal report, showing that the sector isn’t accelerating at the same time.
The weak numbers would reinforce the broader slowdown narrative; markets may price in more easing by the Fed. Gold might gain ~$30-50 in price, while EURUSD could surge 80-140 pips. Conversely, the stable PMI would show that the economy slows gradually, not sharply. In this case, gold might lose ~$25-45 while EURUSD goes the same direction by 90-130 pips.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
