Weekly Trading News: March 30–April 4, 2026

As we move into the turn of the month, markets are facing a set of releases that could reshape expectations — particularly after a surprisingly weak US labor print in early March.

GBP: GDP (YoY)(Q4)
March 31, 09:00 MT time

The UK economy remains stuck in a low-growth environment. The previous results showed 0.1%, and the forecast numbers are expected to. This release is anticipated to serve more as a confirmation than a catalyst.

The country has been hovering in a narrow band between stagnation and mild expansion, with weak consumer demand and subdued business investment continuing to weigh on growth. What will matter more is the composition beneath the headline.

Markets will be watching closely for signs of resilience in services — still the backbone of the British economy — vs ongoing weakness in manufacturing and construction areas. Any downward revision, even modest, would reinforce the narrative that the country is struggling to generate momentum and remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly from energy prices and global trade conditions.

Affected instruments: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, and other GBP-pairs

EUR: CPI (YoY)
March 31, 12:00 MT time

The eurozone’s inflation continues to ease gradually. As long as February posted 1.9%, the March data is expected to be around 1.75%. The disinflation trend is intact, but not yet decisive.

This creates a delicate balancing act for the European Central Bank. A softer-than-expected print would strengthen the case for rate cuts in the coming months, particularly as growth across the bloc remains fragile.

However, if core inflation proves more persistent, it could delay policy easing and revive concerns that inflation may exceed the target. In that sense, this release is less about direction — which is clearly downward — and more about the speed and sustainability of that decline.

Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pair.

USD: Nonfarm Payrolls
April 3, 15:30 MT time

This is where the real tension lies. The previous negative NFP print has fundamentally shifted the narrative. Firstly, it raised the question of whether the US labor market is finally cracking. If the upcoming report shows a solid rebound, markets may dismiss the prior weakness as an anomaly. But if the data disappoints again, it would strongly suggest a turning point.

Secondly, this release will directly shape the Fed’s expectations. A strong rebound reinforces a “higher for longer” stance or delays cuts. But another weak print will accelerate rate-cut bets and recession concerns.

Finally, the psychological element matters. Markets are no longer pricing in steady strength; they are looking for confirmation or contradiction. That makes this release far more important than usual.

Affected instruments: all